000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041436 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2011 COLDER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPED AROUND THE EYE SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE 115 KT AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION... OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS INCREASED BACK UP TO 115 KT AFTER 0800 UTC. A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 285/12 AND SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS EUGENE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG 28N. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. EUGENE SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAYS 3 AND 4 AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE IS STEERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR THE FIRST TIME...THE SHIPS-DERIVED ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX INDICATES THAT EUGENE HAS GAINED ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS...AND THE SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO BEARS THIS OUT. TRUTHFULLY...THE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST FEW INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS...AND PRESUMABLY THE ACTUAL INTENSITY...TO DECREASE. ALSO...SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK WILL BE DECREASING MORE GRADUALLY AND COULD SUPPORT SLOWER WEAKENING. IN LIGHT OF THESE POINTS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST OF THE MODELS...THE LGEM...FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EUGENE SHOULD ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER 22C DEGREE WATERS AND DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH BY DAY 5...AS INDICATED IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.8N 118.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.4N 120.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.0N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.6N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 21.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG