000
WTPZ45 KNHC 040900
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2011
 
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

EUGENE HAS NOT WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
IT HAS BEGUN TO TRAVERSE A SHARP GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH THE SIZE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
SHRUNK...IT REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRIC.  IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY COOLED AROUND A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM
DIAMETER EYE.  GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 110 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF T/CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB/SAB.  THE MAIN QUESTION NOW IS HOW QUICKLY THE RATE OF
WEAKENING WILL BE NOW THAT EUGENE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS.  WEAKENING MAY INITIALLY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
EUGENE HAVING SOME OF THE CLASSIC CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  FOR THIS REASON...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING
AFTER THAT...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A IVCN/FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EUGENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72
HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 4-5 DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
BEFORE.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES.  EUGENE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE FORWARD SPEED
OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW CONSIDERABLY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF WHICH CONTINUES TO LIE WELL NORTH OF THE
MAIN TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 16.7N 117.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 17.3N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 18.1N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 18.7N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 19.3N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 20.3N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN