000
WTPZ45 KNHC 040237
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2011
 
EUGENE LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO WHEN
CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -75C SURROUNDED THE EYE. SINCE
THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
THE EYE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH MESOVORTICIES EVIDENT IN THE LAST
FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 110 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATERS...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 26C BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THESE COOL WATERS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD CAUSE STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING...AND EUGENE IS NOW FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES 22C WATERS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE THE
CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND AGAIN DISREGARDS THE SLOWER GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 16.3N 116.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 16.9N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 17.7N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 18.4N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 19.0N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 20.2N 129.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 21.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z 21.5N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI