000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032044
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2011
 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF EUGENE HAVE WARMED SINCE
THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THE EYE ITSELF HAS CLEARED OUT...AND ITS
WARMING HAS COMPENSATED FOR THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUCH THAT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW
T6.0...OR 115 KT.  MORE RECENTLY...OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 120 AND 125 KT...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT
120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...MAKING EUGENE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.
 
EUGENE HAS DEFIED THE MODELS AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  HOWEVER...
ITS TIME OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 26C IS RUNNING OUT...ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS IN FACT...THEREFORE IT SEEMS THAT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
SOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS
THE STATISTICAL MODELS.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS-DERIVED ANNULAR
HURRICANE INDEX INDICATES THAT EUGENE IS NOT ANNULAR AT THIS
TIME...IT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON SOME ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS...
SUCH AS A LARGE EYE AND WIDE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IF EUGENE
BECOMES ANNULAR SOON...AND ITS FORECAST TRACK ACROSS GRADUALLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD FAVOR THAT...THEN THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE GRADUALLY THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH A MOTION OF 290/12.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AND THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION TO THE SOUTH
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 130W AND 150W BY DAY 4...AND THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AT THAT TIME.  THE NEW
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST
36 HOURS AND REALLY ONLY DEVIATES FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...MAINLY TO DISREGARD THE SLOWER...NORTHWARD-TURNING
GFDL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 16.0N 115.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 16.7N 117.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 17.4N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 18.1N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 18.7N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 21.5N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG