000
WTPZ45 KNHC 031454
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2011
 
EUGENE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A BAND
OF WHITE ON THE DVORAK INFRARED ENHANCEMENT CURVE COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED THE LARGE AND RAGGED EYE FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL ABOUT
1330 UTC...AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
WERE 100 TO 105 KT AT 1200 UTC.  EVEN WITH A BREAK IN THE WHITE
BAND RECENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE...
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER...BETWEEN
115 AND 120 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT AS A
COMPROMISE.  

EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ALONG THE PATH OF
EUGENE...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER A PATCH OF HIGHER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT THAT MAY HAVE AIDED INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THAT REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...EUGENE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY.  IN
GENERAL...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FASTER WEAKENING THAN
THE STATISTICAL MODELS...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PUTS
MORE RELIANCE ON THE LATTER...PARTICULARLY WITH THE LGEM AFTER 48
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/12.  A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NEAR 128W WILL BE FILLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN EUGENE ON
ITS CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  ANOTHER BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 135W AND 150W BY DAYS 4 AND
5...BUT EUGENE SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY THEN TO BE STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 15.7N 114.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 16.3N 115.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 17.7N 120.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 18.4N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG