000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030839
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2011

OVERALL...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EUGENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.  A RAGGED EYE IS OCCASIONALLY APPARENT
IN INFRARED IMAGERY...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE
EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 90 KT
AND UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHILE THE ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN REMAIN NEAR 100 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 100 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE SHOULD STEER EUGENE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE NEAR 130W WEAKENS...
AND AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED MORE BY THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
EUGENE IS MOVING OVER SLOWLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A STEADY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATERS...WITH EUGENE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 60-72 HR...TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 96 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR. 
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BEFORE 120 HR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF EUGENE
LASTING WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 15.2N 113.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 15.9N 114.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 16.7N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 17.4N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 18.0N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 19.5N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN