000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030233
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
 
EUGENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE EYE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE 90 KT AT 0000Z...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THEN THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
100 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  THIS MAKES EUGENE A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE
THIRD OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. 
 
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...EUGENE STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS AND IN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS IT IS IN
CURRENTLY.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATER...AND RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AROUND THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE. 
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT...AS IT REMAINS
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.  THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS ABOUT THE FUTURE
TRACK OF EUGENE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BASICALLY HOLD IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW EUGENE
TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL PATH.  A REDUCTION IN SPEED IS
LIKELY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE WEAKER
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A TAD TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 14.7N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 15.3N 113.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 16.2N 115.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 16.9N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 17.5N 120.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 18.8N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 21.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI