000
WTPZ45 KNHC 022035
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
 
EUGENE HAS FINALLY BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN EYE...ALBEIT A LARGE AND
RAGGED ONE.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE BOTH 5.0...AND GIVEN THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90
KT.  A 1555 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE...BUT THIS IMAGE...ALONG WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE
IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT SOME DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND NOW EXPLICITLY CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO REACH MAJOR STATUS...IN LINE WITH ALL THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE LGEM.  IT IS NOW LIKELY...ABOUT A 4 IN 5 CHANCE...THAT
EUGENE WILL REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT SOME POINT DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

EUGENE MAY FINALLY BE DECELERATING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 285/12.  THERE IS NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING TO ADD TO
THE FORECAST REASONING...AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A HAIR
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 14.2N 110.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 14.7N 112.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 15.5N 114.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 16.2N 116.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 16.9N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 18.2N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 20.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG