000 WTPZ45 KNHC 021452 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011 OCCASIONALLY IT HAS APPEARED THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AN EYE...BUT EVERY TIME THAT HAPPENS THE WARM SPOT NOTED IN INFRARED IMAGERY DISAPPEARS. STILL...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 85 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. EUGENE HAS BEEN DEFYING THE MODELS AND IS NOT SLOWING DOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/13. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST NEAR 128W FILLING A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FASTER-MOVING GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT PREVENTED EUGENE FROM STRENGTHENING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING AN EYE. NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. EUGENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND BASED ON RECENT NHC INTENSITY ERRORS AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING AT SOME POINT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST INDICATES A RATE OF WEAKENING SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.5N 111.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 16.1N 115.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 16.8N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG