000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020859 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SPIRALING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME QUITE PROMINENT...AND THERE ARE NOW HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING IN THE INFRARED CHANNEL. THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED CENTRAL FEATURES...AND EVEN THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OF 290/13. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A RATHER LARGE CHANGE IN THE PREDICTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN A COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THERE IS A STILL A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF 120W....ENOUGH RIDGING IS PRESENT IN ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO NOT ALLOW EUGENE TO GAIN SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE. EVEN THE REGIONAL MODELS...HWRF/GFDL...NO LONGER SHOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A KNOT OR TWO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL ENDS UP WELL WEST OF THE LAST FORECAST. THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS... GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...ARE STILL FASTER THAN THE NEW FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FUTURE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE STILL NEEDED. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EUGENE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR THIS SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH DISRUPTION...AS SEEN BY THE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER TOMORROW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. EUGENE WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATERS BY DAY 3... WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND IN ORGANIZATION...THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...AND IS BLENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF EUGENE BRIEFLY BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.8N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 14.3N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.0N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.8N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 16.6N 115.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 18.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE