000
WTPZ45 KNHC 020246
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
 
OVERALL EUGENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A PROMINENT CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
1800Z...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT...AS ANALYZED BY
UW-CIMSS...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS
MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING WHILE EUGENE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME ONCE EUGENE
CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...290/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...AS EUGENE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE AROUND 120W. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE AGAIN BEEN
DISCOUNTED AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNREALISTIC NORTHWARD TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 13.9N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 14.7N 110.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 15.4N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 17.4N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI