000
WTPZ45 KNHC 011432
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
 
EUGENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES.
IN ADDITION...AN 0853 UTC AMSR-E PASS REVEALED THE FORMATION OF A
MID-LEVEL EYE...DISPLACED ABOUT 20 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE AT 3.8. BASED
ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN MOVING RIGHT OF TRACK
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 295/9. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
SINCE YESTERDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD GUIDE
EUGENE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 120-130W ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. EUGENE SHOULD TURN A BIT TO THE
RIGHT AT THAT POINT AND ITS FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EUGENE HAS NOT PREVENTED THE
CYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OF DEVELOPMENT OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY.  THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR RATE OF DEVELOPMENT WOULD NOT CONTINUE...
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINING THE CURRENT LEVEL OF SHEAR FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BEYOND WHAT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES BEFORE EUGENE REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE GFDL MODEL STILL CONTINUING TO FORECAST EUGENE TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD...CLOSE TO LGEM...BUT BELOW THE IVCN/ICON MODEL
CONSESUS AIDS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 12.3N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 12.9N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 13.6N 107.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 14.3N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 15.0N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN