000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010232 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011 EUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST BARELY COVERING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED AT 00Z FROM THEIR PREVIOUS VALUES...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. BASED ON A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/9. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING EUGENE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EUGENE MAY APPROACH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND COULD TURN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...WHICH TURN EUGENE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SEEMINGLY INTO THE TEETH OF THE RIDGE. THESE TWO MODELS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED ...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING EASTERLY SHEAR TO INCREASE OVER EUGENE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SEEMINGLY NOT ENOUGH TO DISSUADE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FROM FORECASTING SOME INTENSIFICATION. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BEFORE EUGENE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...BUT THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE LGEM NEVER BRINGS EUGENE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.3N 102.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 11.7N 103.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.3N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 12.9N 107.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 13.5N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN