000 WTPZ45 KNHC 312033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EUGENE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH THE APPEARANCE OF INCREASED BANDING AND THE FORMATION OF A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE T2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1800 UTC. A TIMELY ASCAT PASS FROM 1810 UTC SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE ASCAT PASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. EUGENE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER ANCTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THIS CYCLE...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF EARLIER RUNS OF THE UKMET/ECMWF. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THIS DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FAVORS A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR EUGENE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE EUGENE REACHES PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...POSSIBLY OFFERING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BEYOND WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK AND THE FORECAST OF A LONGER PERIOD OF LOWER WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 48-96 HR. THIS FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND FSSE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 11.0N 101.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.5N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 12.2N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.9N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 13.6N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.5N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 17.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN