000 WTPZ45 KNHC 310838 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011 DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PERHAPS A LITTLE EXPOSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH T2.0...AND THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...WHICH LIKELY EXPLAINS THE EXPOSED CENTER...AND THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM. SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR BY DAY 5 AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES COLDER WATER. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED SOMEWHAT RECENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/8. THE SYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER-MOVING ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 10.7N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 11.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 12.0N 102.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 12.8N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 13.5N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG