000
WTPZ45 KNHC 040241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPOSED NEARLY 100 N MI TO
THE EAST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND DVORAK FINAL-T
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED TO T1.0 AND T1.5...
RESPECTIVELY.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE
CONVECTION WAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER...ONLY SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF
25-30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES TO CONTEND WITH 20 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND A SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/5. 
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...IT SHOULD
BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALONG THE TRACKS OF BAMS AND BAMM...BUT A LITTLE BIT
SLOWER AS INDICATED BY THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE RECENT
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS THE CONVECTION DIES OUT...THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET
...ECMWF...AND GFDL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 20.7N 110.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 21.4N 113.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N 115.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG