000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
 
THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE