000 WTPZ45 KNHC 031453 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010 THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH SOME INDICATION OF INCREASED BANDING ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...AND 3.0...OR 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES USING THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE SUGGESTED WINDS JUST BELOW AND JUST ABOVE 35 KT. WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IS SEEN EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...IT DOES INDICATE THAT INTENSITY IS NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT...THOUGH THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. BY 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS DEPICTED BY THE BAM DEEP MODEL AS RECURVING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE. INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ADVECT WESTWARD IN THE TRADEWINDS AS IT SLOWLY DECAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE MAY NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL. SSTS UNDER THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE QUICKLY COOL TO BELOW 26C IN ABOUT A DAY...WHILE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO BRIEFLY CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.0N 110.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.4N 111.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.6N 113.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 25 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.0N 117.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z 20.8N 121.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE