000
WTPZ45 KNHC 251431
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
 
DARBY IS A SMALL BUT INTENSE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES AND
MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE
IN A DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.

DARBY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
AT 6 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE
STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF DARBY...BUT MOST OF THEM WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 13.6N 101.2W   100 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 13.9N 102.0W   105 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 13.9N 103.2W   100 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 13.5N 104.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 13.8N 104.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 14.0N 103.3W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N 102.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA