000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250237
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010
 
DARBY IS A SMALL HURRICANE WITH A TINY EYE WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND 5.0
FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY AND BASED ON THESE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS.  DARBY COULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS THE CYCLONE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE
GRADUAL.

DARBY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN TRACK AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND DARBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN CONSIDERABLY OR MEANDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 13.2N 100.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.5N 101.0W    80 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 13.7N 102.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 13.8N 103.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 13.9N 103.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 103.8W    70 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N 103.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 14.8N 103.3W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA