000
WTPZ45 KNHC 242031
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010
 
DARBY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING
FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE ARE HINTS OF AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE
HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...STRONG
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER
CLOSELY.

THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW GRADUALLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 285/7.  SINCE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO WEAKEN...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO COLLAPSE IN A
FEW DAYS AND THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE.   ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW REJECTS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT DARBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
SIMPLY MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A HALT BY DAY 4.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 12.9N  99.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.1N 100.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N 103.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH