000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230231
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010
 
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN NOW CONSISTS OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SHEAR. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT IN THE AREA SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR A MODEST
STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. 

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER.  THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WELL OFFSHORE
SOUTH OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.     
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 11.0N  93.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 11.5N  94.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 12.0N  96.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 12.8N  97.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N  99.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 102.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA