000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120850
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NORBERT MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0400 UTC OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SONORA STATE OF MEXICO WITH AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 75 KT.  NORBERT
IS NOW WELL INLAND OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED BELOW
HURRICANE STATUS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL APPEARS
WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY
SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE CIRCULATION SHOULD SPIN DOWN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM NORBERT
IS ALREADY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.  ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM NORBERT
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SPREAD OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHEASTWARD...045/17...AS NORBERT IS CAUGHT IN
THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. 
THIS GENERAL MOTION... WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION...IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISSIPATES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 27.5N 108.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N 105.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH