000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120232
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WENT INTO NORBERT AROUND 2100 UTC AND FOUND
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 67 KT...AND AN
EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE
HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 75 KT IN LINE WITH TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS. THE
PLANE ALSO FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THE SATELLITE
FIXES...SO I'M GOING TO LEAN A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL IN AN HOUR OR TWO...AND A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF
NORBERT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.  MOISTURE FROM NORBERT SHOULD
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
INCIDENTALLY...THE CIMSS ADT TECHNIQUE EARLIER ESTIMATED A PRESSURE
OF 957.5 MB RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BAJA...SO THAT PRESSURE
ESTIMATE APPEARED TO MATCH NICELY WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 26.5N 109.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 28.6N 107.6W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN