000
WTPZ45 KNHC 111449
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NORBERT HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED THIS
MORNING...AS THE EYE HAS FILLED IN.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE
OF THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES.  A BLEND OF THE
DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...HOWEVER...YIELDS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. 
NORBERT IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
AT ABOUT 13 KT...AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES.  THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MAKE A FINAL
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THIS EVENING.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST NORBERT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND USES
A BLEND OF THE DIFFERING SPEEDS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
THE CYCLONE...BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF NORBERT'S INTENSITY.  AFTER
LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 24.3N 111.9W    90 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N 110.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N 107.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA