000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110846 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NORBERT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS RE-STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE. A 23-NMI DIAMETER ROUND EYE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DISTINCT AND IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE NOT FAR FROM BEING CLASSIFIED AS T6.0/115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13. NORBERT REMAINS ON TRACK... AND GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED NOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...NORBERT SHOULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS....WHICH CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BAHIA MAGDALENA AND SANTA FE. THE BETTER DEFINED EYE...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE EYE...IMPROVING OUTFLOW...AND SSTS NEAR 28C SUGGEST THAT NORBERT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING... BUT NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. JUST HOW STRONG NORBERT WILL BE AT THE SECOND LANDFALL WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW STRONG IT IS WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. AFTER NORBERT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL BECOME STRETCHED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS...THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THAT NORBERT IS A STRONGER CYCLONE. AS NORBERT CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS... ITS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE ADVECTED WELL AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE CIRCULATION...AND INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE REGION COULD POSSIBLY CREATE A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE THAT OF HURRICANE TICO OF 1983. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 23.5N 112.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5N 111.4W 80 KT...INLAND BAJA 24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.3N 109.2W 35 KT...INLAND MEXICO 36HR VT 12/1800Z 31.5N 106.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART