000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008 THE EYE OF NORBERT IS STILL DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CURVED BAND ON THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NOW ON...BUT THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BUT NORBERT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. IT IS STILL FORECAST TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE BUT A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN THE PORTION OF THE TRACK BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. NORBERT IS RIGHT ON TRACK. IT IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS... INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT NORBERT WILL BECOME DECOUPLED DUE TO SHEAR AND THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...BY THEN...NORBERT SHOULD BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER RACING NORTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT COULD BRING RAINS TO PORTION OF WESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 19.7N 113.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 22.8N 113.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 24.6N 111.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 27.5N 109.5W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/0600Z 31.5N 105.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA