000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092033 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008 SOMETIMES APPEARANCES ARE NOT WHAT THEY SEEM. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE ESTIMATES YIELD A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 90-100 KT...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING THROUGH NORBERT FOUND WINDS THAT WERE MUCH LOWER. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 83 KT WITHIN THE OUTER EYEWALL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHILE THE SFMR ONLY INDICATED WINDS NEAR 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT...BUT THIS IS LIKELY GENEROUS. DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE MIGHT BE A STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB THAT IS PREVENTING VERTICAL MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL WIND SPEED. SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK UP UNTIL THE BAJA COAST...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NORBERT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A LITTLE FASTER. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA STILL INDICATES NORBERT AS A HURRICANE FOR CONTINUITY ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THEN. ONCE NORBERT REACHES MAINLAND MEXICO...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO SO NO FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN BEYOND 72 HOURS. STILL...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH DAY 4 AND 5. NORBERT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN TO A MOTION OF 320/4. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO SHOW NORBERT MOVING NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM SO MUCH THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LEFT TO MEANDER OFFSHORE AND NOT MOVE INTO MEXICO. WATCHES ARE NOT YET NEEDED FOR THE BAJA COAST SINCE NORBERT HAS SLOWED DOWN...BUT THEY MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 18.3N 112.9W 80 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 20.5N 113.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 22.1N 113.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 24.1N 111.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 27.5N 109.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER BERG