000
WTPZ45 KNHC 042044
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE ONLY.  BASED ON THE BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.

AS EXPRESSED THIS MORNING...BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE
COMPLICATED AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE UK AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A POTENTIAL
THREAT TO MEXICO EVENTUALLY. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER CYCLONE TO
THE EAST AND THE DEPRESSION BECOMES ABSORBED BY IT. EVEN THE GFDL
AND HWRF ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE GFDL KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING
WESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNS IT NORTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. I AM
STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE SINCE I HAVE TO CHOOSE ONE OF
THESE RELIABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. 

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  THE UK AND
ECMWF MODELS GRADUALLY DEVELOP A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE THE NEW CYCLONE PRODUCED BY THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG. WE SHALL SEE.  

IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND ASSUMES
THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT BE ABSORBED BY THE NEW GFS CYCLONE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 14.2N 100.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.3N 101.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N 103.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 104.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N 106.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 108.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA