000
WTPZ45 KNHC 041434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND. THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY IMPORVING. THE OUTFLOW IS ONLY PRESENT IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.
 
BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE COMPLICATED. THE DEPRESSION
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX AND WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND IT HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...THE STEERING AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF THE
DEPRESSION. IN FACT...THE GFS ASSUMES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A NEW CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE DEPRESSION AS THE ONLY CYCLONE AND MOVE
IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST COULD BE DEVELOPING AS SUGGESTED BY THE
GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS ALL MODELS BUT THE GFS AND
KEEPS THE DEPRESSION ON A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT I COULD BE SORRY LATER ON THAT I DID NOT
FOLLOW THE RELIABLE GFS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 14.0N  99.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.1N  99.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 14.2N 100.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N 101.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 102.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA