000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008
 
THE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING...LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD...AND AGAIN EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ISELLE.  
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT 25-30 KT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.  WITH STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS BECOMING MORE
SPORADIC...ISELLE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
 
ISELLE HAS MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...BUT THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.  DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHWARD INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 18.4N 112.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 18.6N 113.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 18.8N 114.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.0N 115.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.1N 117.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN