000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161440
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008
 
ISELLE IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION...JUST ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WITH STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR FORECAST TO CONTINUE...ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ISELLE HAS
MADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/5 KT.  ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS
GENERAL HEADING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 18.6N 112.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 113.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 19.9N 114.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 115.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN