000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160845
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008
 
ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE HAS DISSIPATED AND
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH SOME LEFTOVER MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS.  WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS
THE CONVECTIONLESS CIRCULATION GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN.  IN
FACT...ISELLE APPEARS TO BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW
STATUS...PERHAPS LATER TODAY. 
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW MOVING WITH THE SHALLOW STEERING
RESULTING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 340/04.  A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE ENCOUNTER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 18.7N 111.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N 111.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N 112.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 20.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME