000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160234
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008
 
ISELLE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY THIS EVENING...AS THE INCREASING
EASTERLY SHEAR DISPLACES THE EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION FARTHER
FROM THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST.  DVORAK SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT...AND A 1726Z ASCAT
OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 30 KT OR LESS.  BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKENING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SURRENDERING TO THE HARSH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.  IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS AND THE LGEM SUGGEST AN EVEN EARLIER REMNANT LOW
SCENARIO...IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD COME TO FRUITION.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/2...AN EXPECTED TEMPORARY DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  BECAUSE
OF THE BRIEF NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DERIVED
FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 18.2N 111.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N 111.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N 112.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.9N 113.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N 114.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 19.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA