000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008 800 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2008 NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS A 13/1017Z TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 185 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. CURVED BANDING NOTED IN THE TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE RAPID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY NOT HAVE TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LAST GFDL MODEL RUN APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BACK TAKING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL SUITE TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE IN THE LATER PERIODS...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. ALTHOUGH THE OVERNIGHT BURST OF CONVECTION WAS IMPRESSIVE AND HELPED TO QUICKLY SPIN UP THE WIND FIELD...THIS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. THE CONVECTIVE BURST MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DIVERGENT REGION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DERIVED WIND FIELDS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 2 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTERWARD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 16.3N 105.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 16.7N 107.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 17.3N 109.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 17.7N 110.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 111.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN