000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070236
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008
 
THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
DATA SUGGEST THAT IT IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO.  SOME OF THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRACK JUST OFF OR ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER NOW ON THE COAST AND
CONTINUING NORTHWARD FARTHER INLAND...SUCH A TRACK APPEARS
UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL TURN
NORTHWESTWARD TAKING THE DEPRESSION INLAND WHERE RAPID DEGENERATION
INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY. 
 
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 18.1N 102.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.6N 102.9W    25 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N 103.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 19.7N 104.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/0000Z...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME