000
WTPZ45 KNHC 062035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED-
LOOKING AND LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AND I HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
LATEST GFDL/HWRF FORECASTS THAT CALL FOR NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.

IT HAS BEEN A REAL CHALLENGE TO LOCATE THE CENTER EVEN WITH VISIBLE
IMAGERY.  MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP EITHER.  RECENT
VISIBLE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT TO THE
EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BUT THIS IS NOT YET CERTAIN.  HOWEVER
THE CENTER POSITION WAS PULLED BACK A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON THIS
ADVISORY.  INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 315/7.  THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS
TIME.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT WITH TIME OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.

AS NOTED EARLIER...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 17.0N 102.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 103.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.4N 104.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 105.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 109.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH