000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061444 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008 ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...THE DEPRESSION'S CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES HOWEVER THERE IS A GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTENSITY. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS JUST BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. OF COURSE...THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS BY DAYS 4-5 SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY BY THAT TIME. THERE IS ALSO GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE ROUGHLY NEAR THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. THIS RESULTS IN AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/9. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE WEAK AND SOME OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE CENTER ASHORE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...TAKES THE CYCLONE CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE OVER THE COASTLINE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST LOCATION AND INTENSITY...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 16.3N 102.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 17.0N 103.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.9N 104.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 105.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.9N 106.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH