000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060900 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING IN DETERMINING ITS POSITION AND TRACK. A 0108Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A MUCH FARTHER WEST POSITION THAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY CARRIED. HOWEVER...BOTH THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND A SUBSEQUENT ASCAT PASS WERE AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS CURRENTLY. THE INTENSITY HAS PERHAPS BEEN MORE READILY ASSESSED AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND BOTH SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST WINDS REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INDICATED. ASSUMING THAT A CLOSED CENTER EXISTS IN THE CYCLONE...A ROUGH MOTION VECTOR OF 300/8 IS ANALYZED. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE BRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE JUST SKIRTS THE COAST...WHILE OTHERS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND AND ADVECT A MID-LEVEL VORTEX OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS PROBLEMATIC... HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE RELOCATION THAT WAS NEEDED EARLIER. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY IS OVER WARM WATERS AND HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT IS BEING IMPACTED BY RATHER STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE MAKING MORE THAN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH SPIN THE CYCLONE UP TO A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM... AND THE HWRF AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH DO NOT INTENSIFY IT. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATERS OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.7N 102.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 104.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 105.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 108.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB