000
WTPZ45 KNHC 231435
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007
 
THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE A COOLER OCEAN
AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. SO KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
 
KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS.  SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL
LIKELY MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE PREVAILING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 18.6N 113.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 114.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA