000
WTPZ45 KNHC 221436
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007
 
AFTER PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...
TEMPORARILY HALTING THE WEAKENING TREND...IT APPEARS THAT KIKO'S
DOWNWARD TREND HAS RESUMED.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE PRIMARILY
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS DEBRIS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35
KT BASED ON THE DETERIORATING SATELLITE APPEARANCE. KIKO'S
ANTICIPATED TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING.  IN
FACT...IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE
SOON...KIKO COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
KIKO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AS IT HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE 280/5.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN NORTHWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW
APPROACHES A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 19.7N 108.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.8N 110.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 19.8N 112.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 19.9N 114.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 20.2N 116.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME