000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210859 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF KIKO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. A 0253 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR TO AN EARLIER PASS...BUT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS YET TO REVEAL SUCH A FEATURE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A BLEND OF THE TWO...60 KT. FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS...KIKO HAS BEEN ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KIKO'S INTENSITY COULD BE REACHING ITS PEAK. ONLY THE GFDL BRINGS KIKO TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER...KIKO IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND ICON... WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DSHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...AND KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RIDGE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 OR SO HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE... HOWEVER...VARIES IN THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WHEN THIS OCCURS...A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL COMMENCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET... NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. SINCE KIKO IS CURRENTLY MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE WESTWARD TURN IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN TO MATERIALIZE...INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 19.3N 107.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.8N 107.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 20.2N 108.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.6N 109.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 21.1N 110.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI