000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210237 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007 LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. A 0010 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED AN EYE FEATURE OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE OUTFLOW OF KIKO REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING KIKO...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS KIKO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS KIKO PASSES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. KIKO IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE VERY SOON. THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE INTERACTION OF KIKO AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE GFDL AND 18Z UKMET DEEPEN THE TROUGH ENOUGH TO KEEP KIKO ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL BYPASS KIKO AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SCENARIO THAT THE KIKO WILL RESPOND TO THE BUILDING RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO..THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WESTWARD TURN IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN TO MATERIALIZE...INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 18.9N 107.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 19.6N 107.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 20.2N 108.1W 70 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 110.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 117.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA