000
WTPZ45 KNHC 191437
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KIKO IS SLOWLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE THAT MAY BE THE
BEGINNING OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 52 AND 45 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW 10 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER KIKO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/3.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR SHOULD STEER KIKO SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  BEYOND THAT TIME...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
ITS EFFECTS ON KIKO.  THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ALL
FORECAST THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW KIKO
TO TURN WESTWARD BY 72-96 HR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE TURN
EARLIER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND MOVING FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO TURN KIKO NORTHWARD.  THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...BUT APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE FORWARD
MOTION.  EVEN NOW...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH OF THESE
SCENARIOS WILL VERIFY.  THEREFORE...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST CALLS
FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN FORECAST IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OVERALL...THE TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

KIKO SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL
CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 68 KT...THE GFDL 88 KT...AND THE HWRF
90 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE WITH A
FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT.  AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR AS KIKO REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.1N 105.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 105.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.9N 106.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 107.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N 108.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN