000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190251
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING WITH BANDS OF CURVED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  A 0100 UTC MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35
KT.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO.  VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS ALSO LESSENED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SEPARATE
FROM THE ITCZ.  WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF
THE STORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A MODERATE INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.  IN THE
LONGER-RANGE...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AND KIKO'S INTENSITY COULD
LEVEL OFF BY THEN...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT
POSSIBILITY.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN.
 
THE CENTER OF KIKO HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK TODAY...EVEN
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE RECENT CENTER REFORMATION
DOESN'T HELP MATTERS.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE STORM IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST...315/3.  THIS LEFTWARD TURN MAY BE
DUE TO A RIDGE RE-BUILDING OVER MEXICO FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  WITH
RIDGING FORECAST OVER MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS
THAT KIKO WILL BE STEERED IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. 
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS NEW MOTION AND NOW
EITHER KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OR HAVE
THE CYCLONE JUST BRUSH THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE WEST BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 16.7N 104.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.2N 104.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.7N 105.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.2N 105.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA