000
WTPZ45 KNHC 182032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
200 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007
 
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR
THE CENTER AND IMPROVING CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  THE BANDING HAS NOT YET
INCREASED ENOUGH TO RAISE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.

THE CENTER IS STILL BROAD AND HARD TO PIN DOWN EVEN WITH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE POSITION IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/3. 
IN THE FIRST 48 HR OR SO...KIKO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AS PRESSURES RISE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  AFTER 48 HR...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE HANDLING OF
A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BUILD ENOUGH RIDGE BETWEEN KIKO AND THE TROUGH TO TURN
THE STORM WESTWARD.  IN A NOTABLE CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...
THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF KIKO AND A NORTHWESTWARD
TO WESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE GFS.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO
BUILD THE RIDGE AFTER 48 HR...BUT IN A TWIST MOVES THE STORM
NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.  THE NOGAPS
AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A PATTERN THAT
WOULD CAUSE A NORTHWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO.  THE GFDL AND HWRF CALL
FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A MUCH FASTER SPEED THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SIMILAR TO BUT
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...IT
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS LEFT OF AND SOMEWHAT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AT ABOUT THE SPEED OF THE ECMWF
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THEM TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  SINCE KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FARTHER
FROM LAND...THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...AND THEN PEAK AT
ABOUT 96 HR AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR.  THE NEW INTENSITIES
ARE HIGHER THAN THOSE OF THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT BELOW THOSE OF THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 16.8N 103.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.2N 103.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N 103.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.3N 104.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN