000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180846 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL MOTION RELIES HEAVILY ON EXTRAPOLATION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. KIKO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS THUS FAR LIMITED STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSUMING THE CYCLONE SURVIVES...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IN FACT THE SHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS ALL SHOW KIKO BECOMING A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE RATHER BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS KIKO AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/6. THE TRACK FORECAST HINGES ON WHETHER OR NOT KIKO CAN BREAK FREE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED...IT COULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CONVERSELY...IF THE CYCLONE WERE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME DEEPER...IT WOULD TEND TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A WEST BIAS IN CASES WHERE CYCLONES MOVE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND IS RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.4N 104.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.9N 103.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 103.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 103.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.2N 104.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 108.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME