000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007
 
KIKO CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES...
AS ITS CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY...AS DOES AN AMSU PASS FROM 2039Z.  HOWEVER...A HIGH-RES
ASCAT PASS FROM 1716Z INDICATED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT.  AS THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY
SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 
30 KT.
 
KIKO IS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT DUE TO THE
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MONSOONAL TROUGH...IN WHICH KIKO IS
EMBEDDED...AND A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND KIKO SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GFS...UKMET...HWRF...AND GFDL.
 
WHILE THE SSTS REMAIN A RATHER TOASTY 29C UNDERNEATH KIKO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT OR MORE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND
THE DECAY-SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPOND TO
THIS BY INTENSIFYING KIKO TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WIN OUT AND KIKO
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE THE DECREASED SHEAR KICKS IN...AS
INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 14.0N 107.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.1N 107.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N 106.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W    35 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N 107.2W    35 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 16.2N 107.6W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 108.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN