000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007
 
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EARLIER TODAY...THE CENTER
BECAME FAR REMOVED FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT KIKO HAS
WEAKENED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD STILL OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREAFTER...AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE STEERED
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A TURN
TO THE LEFT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT KIKO IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 180 N MI IN
FIVE DAYS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 14.1N 108.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.1N 108.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 107.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 108.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 109.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 109.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA