000
WTPZ45 KNHC 020845
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
AN EARLIER SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL IN
COVERAGE...CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY BURST OVER THE CIRCULATION
CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.  COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE
A WEAKENING CAUSING GIL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...FINALLY DISSIPATING IN 3 DAYS.
 
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/8...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 19.5N 123.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 19.8N 124.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 127.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 129.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 20.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB